MSBA Enrollment Methodology

Overview

The MSBA, with the assistance of its consultant, developed a data driven enrollment projection methodology based on the modified grade-to-grade cohort survival methodology (“enrollment methodology”). The enrollment methodology generates a baseline enrollment projection using historic enrollment data (Department of Elementary and Secondary Education), birth data (Massachusetts Department of Public Health), female population data (US Census Bureau) and female population projections (University of Massachusetts’s Donahue Institute, “UMDI”), as follows:

• Birth and female population data are used to calculate fertility rates;
• Fertility rates are applied to actual and projected female populations;
• Birth data and Kindergarten enrollment data are used to calculate an average birth-to-kindergarten ratio;
• The birth-to-kindergarten ratio is applied to actual and projected births to generate Kindergarten enrollments;
• Historic enrollment data is used to calculate average grade-to-grade survival ratios (the proportion of students enrolled in one grade and school year to the number of students enrolled in the next grade and school year) to project the number of students in each grade;
• Grade-to-grade survival ratios are applied to actual and projected student enrollment to generate grade 1-12 enrollment projections; and
• The baseline enrollment is calculated using the 10-year average of projected enrollment for the grades to be considered in the proposed feasibility study.

The District completes two online enrollment questionnaires and an educational profile questionnaire that informs the MSBA’s understanding of the District’s current and proposed educational facilities, teaching methodology, grade configurations, and program offerings. Other enrollment factors reflected include:

• Housing development;
• Student migration patterns;
• Private/Parochial/Charter school openings/closures;
• Potential school consolidations and grade configuration changes;
• Space deficiencies affecting delivery of educational program;
• District class size policies;
• Other factors the District believes may affect enrollment.

Based on the above information the MSBA generates a baseline enrollment projection using its enrollment methodology. The MSBA and the District meet to review the baseline enrollment projection and discuss potential grade configurations, school consolidations, housing developments and other local factors that the District believes may impact enrollment projections.

If applicable, after the enrollment meeting, additional information is submitted by the District. The MSBA may apply one or more of the following adjustments to the baseline projection if the additional information demonstrates that an adjustment is warranted:

• Out of district enrollment impact from new construction that may encourage students that previously opted out of District to return;
• Development adjustment if recent housing development differs from that experienced in the past;
• Continuous projected growth adjustment should sufficient continued and sustained growth be observed beyond the ten-year projection period;
• Changes in student migration patterns observed in the District’s recent cohort survival ratios that sufficiently impact forecast; and
• Sustained population adjustment should the UMDI project significant near-term decline in the District’s female population, while updated Massachusetts Department of Revenue census data indicate an overall increase in total population.

Upon agreement of a design or study enrollment, the MSBA and the District continue to collaborate to further develop the total square footage of the proposed project as informed by the MSBA’s space guidelines and the District’s educational program, outlined in Module 3. The MSBA grant will be informed in large part by the eligible square footage of the project required to house the student population generated by the enrollment projection and agreed upon during Eligibility Period.